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Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy Asymmetry : A Journey into the Caucasian Black Box
Jamilov, Rustam - 2013
This paper analyses the interest rate pass-through for five economies of the Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) specification to monthly data, we find that the interest rate pass-through is systematically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085758
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The Price Puzzle Revisited : Can the Cost Channel Explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Policy Shock?
Henzel, Steffen - 2013
This paper explores whether the cost channel solves the price puzzle. We set-up a New Keynesian DSGE model and estimate it for the euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings suggest that - under certain parameter restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753889
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Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules
Binici, Mahir - 2013
We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092385
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Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy and Public Debt : Historical and Time Series Evidence for the Period 1850-2010
Burret, Heiko - 2013
cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085753
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Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2013
One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753957
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Cunado, Juncal; Gil-Alana, … - 2021
This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the suggested...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317060
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A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2021
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317169
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Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High Frequency Data on the US Dollar/British Pound Spot Exchange Rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082343
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Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2011
This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration … exploiting recent developments in fractional cointegration allows to investigate in greater depth the relationships between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126003