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In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations. The set-up is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both technology and political re-election shocks. The later are incorporated via a two-party model with elections. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012784084
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. We consider BVAR averaging, Bayesian factor augmented VARs (BFAVARs … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses areawide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753479
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316171
In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in … growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092691
conclusions that arise from the model. In the new model, the level and the variability of inflation is higher than in the Calvo … model with no selection effect. Attempting to lower inflation's variability results in a significant increase output …'s variability, without changing inflation's variability much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000448
While the financial protection measures enacted by the ECB and the community of Eurozone members have calmed financial … markets, they have left the competitiveness problem of the Eurozone's southern countries and France unresolved. The paper … compares price inflation before the crisis with the necessary and actual price cuts that have taken place since the outbreak of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087283
interaction of the two elements leads to an inflation bias that is independent of the standard time-inconsistency bias. Secondly … correlated with unemployment, but not with inflation in the respective countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089167
In this paper we propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate … catching-up and inflation differentials and offer an interpretation of the nature of this interaction. Our discussion is in … inflation rates between Member States do not necessarily have to be an equilibrium phenomenon, even if the original shock comes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754168