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The literature on estimating macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy requires suitable instruments to identify exogenous and unanticipated spending shocks. So far, the instrument of choice has been military build-ups. This instrument, however, largely limits the analysis to the US as few other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097432
We estimate the fiscal multiplier associated with shocks to government spending. We consider increases in government spending in the U.S. states in the wake of natural disasters to capture spending shocks that are both unexpected and unrelated to the preceding state of the economy. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000433
multiplier; (ii) positive long-run output multipliers are obtained only if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the … intertemporal labor supply effect; (iii) short-run output multipliers under lump-sum tax financing are smaller than long-run output … multipliers if labor supply is elastic; and (iv) bond financing reduces the size of long-run output multipliers as compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783358
-skill premium. We next find that vacancy subsidies for skilled and unskilled jobs lead to output multipliers which are greater than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028533
This paper analyses monthly hours worked in the US over the sample period 1939m1 – 2011m10 using a cyclical long memory model; this is based on Gegenbauer processes and characterised by autocorrelations decaying to zero cyclically and at a hyperbolic rate along with a spectral density that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877961
The HP filter is the most popular filter for extracting the trend and cycle components from an observed time series. Many researchers consider the smoothing parameter ë = 1600 as something like an universal constant. It is well known that the HP filter is an optimal filter under some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010548563
This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094297
This paper proposes a very general time series framework to capture the long-run behaviour of financial series. The suggested model includes linear and non-linear time trends, and stationary and nonstationary processes based on integer and/or fractional degrees of differentiation. Moreover, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181402
taxation on cycles and local stability of equilibria. We show that under proportional taxation there is a critical tax rate … above which cycles will vanish, while in the case of linearly progressive taxation there is a critical level of exemption … below which cycles will vanish as well. Hence, a sufficiently high tax rate and a low tax progression eliminate cycles. If …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196218
subject to cycles in which capital, output and employment vary in fixed proportion. These increase through saving and capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005405864