which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to reliably detect … relatively mild recessions when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to clearly … distinguish normal and severe recessions, so that the model identifies reliably all business cycle turning points in our sample …

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions …, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this … with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even …

The paper analyzes a very stylized model of crises and demonstrates how the degree of strategic complementarity in the …