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We examine “Forward Guidance Contracts”, which make central bankers' utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a flexible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021419
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095747
Economic research has considered Private Debt a determinant of GDP growth for years. By keeping this perspective, the objective of this work is to understand how much of the GDP response to a monetary shock is due to the variation of private debt. This is the marginal contribution of private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953691
and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182
, the effect on inflation is not significantly different from zero. This suggests that while the Japanese Quantitative … Easing experiment was successful in stimulating real activity in the shortrun, it did not lead to any increase in inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092811
In impulse response analysis estimation uncertainty is typically displayed by constructing bands around estimated impulse response functions. These bands may be based on frequentist or Bayesian methods. If they are based on the joint distribution in the Bayesian framework or the joint asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057654
policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global inflation rates, a rise in international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994181
A central issue of monetary policy analysis is the specification of monetary policy shocks. In a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which restrictions to use for identifying the shocks because standard theories do not provide enough information to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754187
We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947523
conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915503