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Debt, Inflation and Growth - Robust Estimation of Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Panel Data Models

Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - CESifo - 2013

This paper investigates the long-run effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth. Our contribution is both … over the 1965-2010 period, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt and inflation on growth. Our … results indicate that, if the debt to GDP ratio is raised and this increase turns out to be permanent, then it will have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010721613

Political Stability and Fiscal Policy Time Series Evidence for the Swiss Federal Level Since 1849

Feld, Lars P. - 2009

This paper explores the role of political stability on fiscal policy choices in a time-series analysis over 158 years on the Swiss federal level. We argue that the fiscal-commons problem of public finances is affected by the time-horizon of a finance minister. Arguably, the incentives for an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158327

Fiscal Rules and Government Size in the European Union

Mierau, Jochen O.; Andreu, Eduard Suari - 2021

This paper studies the impact of national fiscal rules on government size as measured by the ratio of government expenditures to gross domestic product. We develop a model of the budgetary process and show that a common pool problem may arise which can be mitigated through fiscal rules. We test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315620

Expert Politicians, Electoral Control, and Fiscal Restraints

Dulleck, Uwe - 2012

Fiscal restraints have been argued to force today's governments to internalize the externalities that result from extensive borrowing on future electorates and governments as well as on other countries by causing fiscal instability. In this article we provide an alternative argument for fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110412

Do Large Cabinets Favor Large Governments? Evidence from Swiss Sub-Federal Jurisdictions

Schaltegger, Christoph A.; Feld, Lars P. - CESifo - 2004

political economics. The more fragmented a government, the higher its spending, deficits and debt. In this paper we investigate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005094240

Political Stability and Fiscal Policy - Time Series Evidence for the Swiss Federal Level since 1849

Feld, Lars P.; Schaltegger, Christoph A. - CESifo - 2009

This paper explores the role of political stability on fiscal policy choices in a time-series ana-lysis over 158 years on the Swiss federal level. We argue that the fiscal-commons problem of public finances is affected by the time-horizon of a finance minister. Arguably, the incentives for an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034630

What Should Fiscal Councils Do?

Calmfors, Lars - 2011

The paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surveys empirically the activities of existing councils. Case studies of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility are done. It is concluded that fiscal councils should be advisory,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128042

Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard - 2012

We use real‐time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100272

Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area

Hebous, Shafik - 2012

We estimate spillover effects of a fiscal shock in one member country in the euro area on outputs of the rest of the members, using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model. We compare the effects of a domestic fiscal shock with those of a similar size area-wide shock expressed as a weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101197

The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Italy : A Long-Term Perspective

Bartoletto, Silvana - 2012

The recent fears of a sovereign debt crisis have spurred interest in the sustainability of public debt. There are two … the time series approach (Trehan and Walsh, 1988). In this paper we analyze the sustainability of public debt in Italy … containing several statistical novelties: new time series estimates of public debt and GDP (respectively Banca d'Italia, 2008 and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106545

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