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Default Predictors and Credit Scoring Models for Retail Banking
Kocenda, Evžen; Vojtek, Martin - CESifo - 2009
This paper develops a specification of the credit scoring model with high discriminatory power to analyze data on loans at the retail banking market. Parametric and non- parametric approaches are employed to produce three models using logistic regression (parametric) and one model using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008572500
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Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending
Englmaier, Florian - 2013
We provide evidence that German savings banks – where local politicians are by law involved in their management – systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timing of county elections across states and the existence of a control group of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075619
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Demographic Change and Bank Profitability - Empirical Evidence from German Savings Banks
Berlemann, Michael - 2013
, allows us estimating the socio-demographic determinants of retail profitability. Using a simulation model, we are able to … predict the development of bank profitability due to demographic shifts up to 2025. One of the main findings is that the … the population reduces the customer base, ageing per se increases profitability as older customers typically generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095185
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Demographic Change and Bank Profitability. Empirical Evidence from German Savings Banks
Berlemann, Michael; Oestmann, Marco; Thum, Marcel - CESifo - 2010
, allows us estimating the socio-demographic determinants of retail profitability. Using a simulation model, we are able to … predict the development of bank profitability due to demographic shifts up to 2025. One of the main findings is that the … the population reduces the customer base, ageing per se increases profitability as older customers typically generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534055
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Institutional Reform and Depositors' Portfolio Choice -- Evidence from Censored Quantile Regressions
Berlemann, Michael - 2014
In this paper we study the effect of institutional reform on the decision to hold risky assets at the extensive and the intensive margin. We therefore make use of the natural experiment of German Division and Reunification and, based on savings bank customer data from German savings banks, study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053072
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EU Banks Rating Assignments : Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether “old” and “new” EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether “new” ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094667
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How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates : Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold
Basten, Christoph - 2018
We analyze the effect of negative monetary policy rates on banks, using detailed supervisory information from Switzerland. For identification, we compare changes in the behavior of banks that had different fractions of their central bank reserves exempt from negative rates. More affected banks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921277
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How Do Banks and Households Manage Interest Rate Risk? Evidence from the Swiss Mortgage Market
Basten, Christoph - 2017
We exploit a unique data set that features both un-intermediated mortgage requests and independent offers from multiple banks for each request. We show that households typically are not prudent risk managers but prioritize the minimization of current mortgage payments over the risk of possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946926
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How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Snowberg, Erik - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125691
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Forecasting Exchange Rates : An Investor Perspective
Melvin, Michael - 2013
The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081705