Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 2,014
Cover Image
Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts
Dovern, Jonas - 2018
new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary dimensions and can deal with parameter estimation uncertainty and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916359
Cover Image
Forecasting Tail Risks
De Nicolo, Gianni - 2015
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
Cover Image
Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
Cover Image
Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns
Hoffmann, Mathias - 2021
Small businesses tend to be owned by wealthy households. Such entrepreneur households also own a large share of U.S. stock market wealth. Fluctuations in entrepreneurs' hunger for risk could therefore help explain time variation in the equity premium. The paper suggests an entrepreneurial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317587
Cover Image
Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
Cover Image
Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon : The French Case
Bec, Frederique - 2009
This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160520
Cover Image
Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts : Evidence from the German States
Kauder, Bjoern - 2017
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962666
Cover Image
A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2021
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317169
Cover Image
Profit Shifting and Investment Effects : The Implications of Zero-Taxable Profits
Koethenbuerger, Marko - 2018
profit. Setting up a model that allows for profitable and loss-making affiliates of multinationals, we show that profit … equilibrium, affiliates might over-invest and the bunching-related investment effects generate a tendency for too high profit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921411
Cover Image
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Fagereng, Andreas - 2018
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway's administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913195