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What Do We Really Know About Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2021
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316576
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A Mechanism to Regulate Sovereign Debt Restructuring in the Euro Area
Andritzky, Jochen R. - 2016
To make the no-bailout clause credible and enhance the effectiveness of crisis assistance, a consistent institutional and legal framework is needed to ensure that private creditors contribute to crisis resolution. Getting activated as part of ESM crisis assistance, we propose a two-stage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982263
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Systematic Consumption Risk in Currency Returns
Hoffmann, Mathias - 2013
boom yields consistently positive excess returns. This excess return compensates for the risk of high negative returns in … countries on risk aversion, and low (high) risk aversion currencies depreciate (appreciate) in times of global turmoil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080499
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Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone : Evidence from Survey Data
Arnold, Ivo J.M. - 2013
This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754359
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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095747
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Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Peersman, Gert - 2013
I find that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet or the monetary base, that is so-called quantitative easing. The transmission mechanism turns out to be different compared to traditional interest rate innovations: whilst the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092365
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Oil and Vinegar : A Positive Fiscal Theory of the Euro Crisis
Blankart, Charles B. - 2013
The theory of optimal currency areas states that a currency union may succeed if the participating countries have complementary industry structures. If this is not the case a currency union does not, inevitably, have to fail because market forces will induce adjustments of the industry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074396
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Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area
Staehr, Karsten - 2008
This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future … counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from … the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773620
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The European Central Bank's QE : A New Hope
Wieladek, Tomasz - 2016
We examine the impact of the ECB's QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE announcement shocks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986934
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Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy : Evidence from the Eurozone
Hau, Harald - 2014
The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by real short …) tightness of monetary policy to examine its influence on equity and money market flows. In line with a powerful risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045340