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return correlations using weekly returns on futures markets and investigate the extent to which multivariate volatility … version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and show that the t-DCC model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817
Carlo experiments, where we also study the estimation of the aggregate effects of micro and macro shocks. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038262
conditional volatility across investment horizons. The results reveal the same kind of horizon effect as the one found in recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160520
This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051612
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
offshoring plays for domestic volatility of employment. Offshoring is modeled as in Antràs & Helpman (2004), but we assume … has a pro-offshoring effect. And 2), under this same condition, offshoring increases volatility in domestic employment of … offshoring firms and the volatility of offshore employment of these same firms is larger than volatility of domestic employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986173
for the years 1970-2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels … volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095840
In this paper we study the effect of institutional reform on the decision to hold risky assets at the extensive and the intensive margin. We therefore make use of the natural experiment of German Division and Reunification and, based on savings bank customer data from German savings banks, study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053072
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198
Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045927