This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …

optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast …

quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …

inherent in growth regressions. IBMA is essential to our estimation because the simultaneous consideration of model uncertainty …

Carlo experiments, where we also study the estimation of the aggregate effects of micro and macro shocks. The paper … concludes with an empirical application to consumer price inflation in Germany, France and Italy, and re-examines the extent to … which ‘observed' inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …