This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively … detect any shifts in the degree of persistence, and also run rolling-window and recursive regressions to investigate its …

This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and … whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the … survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB's anchor for price …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in … growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output …

-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and …This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time …-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the …

, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the … exclusively from the long-run or zero frequency. In the UK, inflation seems to be stationary with a component of long memory at …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

legislation, high union density, centralised wage setting and high inflation …

changeover, Italian retailers have increased the number of price adjustments, which has translated into a higher inflation rate …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …