quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in … growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output …

restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost channel helps to generate an initial rise of inflation after a monetary …

Since 2004, China has been backed into a situation where the renminbi is expected to go ever higher against the dollar ….S. dollar, the resulting monetary explosion in China contributes to the worldwide increase in primary commodity prices - with … excess liquidity reminiscent of the global inflation generated by the weak dollar in the 1970s …

Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic discounting, small positive rates of inflation can be optimal. In … our baseline calibration, the optimal rate of inflation is 2.1% and remains positive across a wide range of calibrations …

indexation to past inflation to vary according to the monetary policy regime. We find that the extent of wage indexation is … significantly lower in an inflation targeting regime, in contrast to monetary targeting, exchange rate targeting and policy regimes …

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special … focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the … Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and …

linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …

This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation … the fraction of borrowers and to a lesser extent the loan-to-value ratio - generate inflation differentials that are … characteristics of financial markets should be seen as a possible alternative explanation for the observable inflation dispersion in …