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maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the model, we use an expectation maximization algorithm based on the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317180
Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045927
-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy’s steady state growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315924
forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406358
forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772859
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094836
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094544
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128542
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
We apply non-linear error-correction models to the empirical testing of the sustainability of the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Our empirical analysis, based on Italy, shows that the Italian government is meeting its intertemporal budget constraint, in spite of the high levels...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316265