This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …

rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates … transaction cost constraint in an optimization framework. Since beating a random walk is not a useful evaluation metric for … currency investing, we discuss the use of benchmarks and conclude that performance evaluation in currencies is much more …

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … shows the opposite pattern; (c) BFAVARs perform well under both evaluation criteria; (d) choosing the degree of shrinkage …

We propose a theory of tax centralization and inter governmental grants in politico-economic equilibrium. The cost of …

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …