This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes … factor-augmented high-dimensional VAR model. The small sample properties of the proposed solution are investigated by Monte …

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and … forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional …

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …

spread—to predict economic recessions in the United States. We also examine the sources of forecasting gains using a …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …

oil prices. A four-model combination – consisting of futures, risk-adjusted futures, a Bayesian VAR and a DSGE model of …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes … factor-augmented high-dimensional VAR model. The small sample properties of the proposed solution are investigated by Monte …