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In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is … acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to … secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024359
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055428
This paper examines the effects of Islamic banking on the causal linkages between credit and GDP by comparing two sets … analysis provides evidence of long-run causality running from credit to GDP in countries with Islamic banks only. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998263
This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105148
characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary … current crisis therapies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055
We analyse the link between supply chains and the extent to which the Great Recession has affected national economies. Our analysis is in two steps, namely first for value added measures of supply chains and then for the Grubel-Lloyd index using gross-export data. Regarding value added measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953709
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019044
The ‘saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022495
outward activity (COA) before the crisis worsened or alleviated the contractionary phases in developing countries. We find … size of the pre-crisis engagement matter: While COA in clearly to financial markets tied sectors implied an aggravation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997245
Why do advanced economies fall into prolonged periods of economic stagnation, particularly in the aftermath of credit … that financially more deregulated economies are more likely to experience persistent stagnation. In the short run, credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927578