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Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Herrera, Helios - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047326

Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View

Schnabl, Gunther; Hoffmann, Andreas - 2021

emerging market economies. Expansionary monetary policies in response to the burst of bubbles are argued to have contributed to … vagabonding bubbles around the globe …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316825

Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment? : A Revealed Preference Approach

Chirinko, Robert S. - 2011

spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that … between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123799

Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles

Enders, Zeno - 2019

We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899999

How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies

Snowberg, Erik - 2011

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125691

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik - 2012

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103608

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017623

Prediction and Identification in Two-Sided Markets

Boik, Andre - 2018

I introduce a reduced form two-sided market model to study prediction and identification in two-sided markets. The model generates the hallmark features of two-sided markets: potentially below cost or even negative prices to one side of the market, and the “see-saw” or “waterbed” effect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924452

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639

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