estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

return correlations using weekly returns on futures markets and investigate the extent to which multivariate volatility … version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and show that the t-DCC model …

maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the model, we use an expectation maximization algorithm based on the state …

has considerable forecasting power for U.S. stock returns. In line with the theoretical mechanism, the correlation between …

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the … management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …

Carlo experiments, where we also study the estimation of the aggregate effects of micro and macro shocks. The paper …