quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …

find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not limited to periods of high inflation …

interaction of the two elements leads to an inflation bias that is independent of the standard time-inconsistency bias. Secondly … correlated with unemployment, but not with inflation in the respective countries …

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special … Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and … regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel's Law may hold during …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

In this note, we argue that the Eurozone needs an institutional exit mechanism to enhance Eurozone stability, and … incentives for intra-Eurozone capital flight and maintaining Eurozone price stability. Our modifications eliminate moral hazard …