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Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area : A Global VAR Analysis

Dees, Stephane - 2006

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783809

The European Central Bank's QE : A New Hope

Wieladek, Tomasz - 2016

We examine the impact of the ECB's QE on Euro Area real GDP and core CPI with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2012M6 to 2016M4. We assess the total impact via a counter-factual exercise, country-by-country and through alternative transmission channels. QE announcement shocks are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986934

Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs

Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095747

Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound : Structural VAR-Based Evidence from Japan

Schenkelberg, Heike - 2013

Using post-1995 Japanese data we propose a theory-based sign-restriction SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the zero-lower bound. The identifying restrictions accord with predictions of corresponding DSGE models. Our results show that while a quantitative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092811

Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows : Evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089557

Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation : On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013

Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083873

Measuring Synchronicity and Co-Movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area

Mink, Mark - 2011

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756787

How to Be Well Shod to Absorb Shocks? Shock Synchronization and Joining the Euro Zone

Gilson, Natacha (Nathalie) - 2021

This paper examines the demand and supply shocks observed in the present Eurozone member states and those observed in … some neighboring countries. The analysis is based on recent data and each Eurozone member country is compared with an … aggregate series corresponding to an area made up of the entire Eurozone minus the country being compared. The results of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317269

Hong Kong Output Dynamics : An Empirical Analysis

Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2021

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321022

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