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Jorda, Oscar - 2015

others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit … slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014986

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Herrera, Helios - 2014

beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047326

Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier : Evidence for the United States

Bernardini, Marco - 2015

Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024365

Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle … financial institutions in the transmission of credit and technology shocks to the real economy. A positive credit shock, defined … between loan and deposit rates. The effects of the credit shock tend to be highly persistent even without price rigidities and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119521

The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles : The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality

Égert, Balázs - 2012

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105148

Credit Channel and Business Cycle : The Role of Tax Evasion

Chiarini, Bruno - 2018

the credit channel via the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that tax evasion is pro cyclical and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910934

Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and Their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations

Peersman, Gert - 2014

Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055428

Systemic Crisis and Growth Revisited : Has the Global Financial Crisis Marked a New Era?

Steinkamp, Sven - 2018

the negative skewness of credit growth, and per-capita output growth still remains intact …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914607

Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession

Born, Alexandra - 2018

large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channel in a unified framework and quantify …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920861

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997239

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