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Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Herrera, Helios - 2014

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047326

Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View

Schnabl, Gunther; Hoffmann, Andreas - 2021

emerging market economies. Expansionary monetary policies in response to the burst of bubbles are argued to have contributed to … vagabonding bubbles around the globe …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316825

Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment? : A Revealed Preference Approach

Chirinko, Robert S. - 2011

spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that … between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123799

Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles

Enders, Zeno - 2019

We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899999

Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations

Kurz, Mordecai - 2015

We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024741

Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crisis on Output

Ridder, Maarten de - 2017

This paper identifies the mechanism through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Theory …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964611

Analysis of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability : A New Paradigm

Goodhart, Charles - 2013

This paper introduces agent heterogeneity, liquidity, and endogenous default to a DSGE framework. Our model allows for a comprehensive assessment of regulatory and monetary policy, as well as welfare analysis in the different sectors of the economy. Due to liquidity and endogenous default, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095226

Rumors and Runs in Opaque Markets : Evidence from Panic of 1907

Fohlin, Caroline - 2016

Using a new daily dataset for all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange between 1905 and 1910, we study the impact of information asymmetry during the liquidity freeze and market run of October 1907 - one of the most severe financial crises of the 20th century. We estimate that the market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981593

The Great Mortgaging : Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar - 2015

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks' balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032225

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