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Comparing Default Predictions in the Rating Industry for Different Sets of Obligors
Kraemer, Walter - 2016
We generalize the refinement ordering for well calibrated probability forecasters to the case were the debtors under consideration are not necessarily identical. This ordering is consistent with many well known skill scores used in practice. We also add an illustration using default predictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996461
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EU Banks Rating Assignments : Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether “old” and “new” EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether “new” ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094667
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Bank Capital Regulation with an Opportunistic Rating Agency
Efing, Matthias - 2013
This paper models the strategic interaction between a rating agency, a bank and a bank regulator who lacks information about bank asset risk. The regulator can either (1) make bank capital requirements contingent on credit ratings; or (2) set rating-independent capital requirements. Truthful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080503
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Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions? The Marginal Profitability of Consumer Lending During the Great Recession
Agarwal, Sumit - 2015
We examine the ability of policymakers to stimulate household borrowing and spending during the Great Recession by reducing banks' cost of funds. Using panel data on 8.5 million U.S. credit card accounts and 743 credit limit regression discontinuities, we estimate the marginal propensity to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013488
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Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis
Schivardi, Fabiano - 2017
Do banks with low capital extend excessive credit to weak firms, and does this matter for aggregate efficiency? Using a unique data set that covers almost all bank-firm relationships in Italy in the period 2004-2013, we find that, during the Eurozone financial crisis: (i) Under-capitalized banks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958446
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A Micro Data Aproach to the Identification of Credit Crunches
Rottmann, Horst - 2013
This paper presents a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches. Using a survey among German firms which regularly queries the firms' assessment of the current willingness of banks to extend credit we estimate the probability of a restrictive credit supply policy by time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094402
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Default Predictors and Credit Scoring Models for Retail Banking
Kočenda, Evžen - 2013
This paper develops a specification of the credit scoring model with high discriminatory power to analyze data on loans at the retail banking market. Parametric and non- parametric approaches are employed to produce three models using logistic regression (parametric) and one model using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095290
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Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending
Englmaier, Florian - 2013
We provide evidence that German savings banks – where local politicians are by law involved in their management – systematically adjust lending policies in response to local electoral cycles. The different timing of county elections across states and the existence of a control group of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075619
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On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry
Güttler, André; Kraemer, Walter - CESifo - 2008
We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P at the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we consider partial orderings among competing probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181478
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Around the World with Irving Fisher
Gylfason, Thorvaldur; Tómasson, Helgi; Zoega, Gylfi - CESifo - 2015
This paper aims to show why Irving Fisher’s own data on interest rates and inflation in New York, London, Paris, Berlin … changes in inflation, not even in the long run. In Fisher’s data, interest rates have more persistence than inflation and … change less than inflation over time. The Fisher effect is a misnomer unless it is taken to refer to what Fisher actually …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011205384