This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution … markets can be used to identify country-specific oil-supply shocks. On the empirical side, estimating the GVAR-Oil model for … 27 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, we show that the global economic implications of oil-supply shocks …

compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil … raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets …

uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply … and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after …

mainly the imposition of a highly unrealistic prior for the global impact price elasticity of oil supply. Once identification … uncertainty about the global price elasticity of oil supply is accounted for by specifying a prior more in line with extraneous …

the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports …

supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with …