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Forecasting Tail Risks
De Nicolo, Gianni - 2015
the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance : Evidence of Skill?
MacDonald, Ronald - 2013
This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095998
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Forecasting Exchange Rates : An Investor Perspective
Melvin, Michael - 2013
rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates … perspective, a particular approach to quantitative modeling is presented that incorporates return forecasts, a risk model, and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081705
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Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts : Evidence from the German States
Kauder, Bjoern - 2017
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962666
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
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Tariffs, Trade and Productivity : A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models
Breinlich, Holger - 2013
We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077449
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Tax Revenue Losses Through Cross-Border Loss Offset : An Insurmountable Hurdle for Formula Apportionment?
Mardan, Mohammed - 2017
This paper analyzes the relevance of firm losses for tax revenues and welfare when switching from separate accounting to a system of tax base consolidation with formula apportionment. We find that a system change unambiguously decreases tax revenues in the short run, in which neither firms nor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960117
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The Role of Mobility in Tax and Subsidy Competition
Haupt, Alexander - 2009
In this paper, we analyse the role of mobility in tax and subsidy competition. Our primary result is that increasing 'relocation' mobility of firms leads to increasing 'net' tax revenues under fairly weak conditions. While enhanced relocation mobility intensifies tax competition, it weakens...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764805
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Voluntary Disclosure of Evaded Taxes -- Increasing Revenues, or Increasing Incentives to Evade?
Langenmayr, Dominika - 2015
Many countries apply lower fines to tax evading individuals when they voluntarily disclose the tax evasion they committed. I model such voluntary disclosure mechanisms theoretically and show that while such mechanisms increase the incentive to evade taxes, they nevertheless increase tax revenues...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022493