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The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank
Kirchgässner, Gebhard - 2013
Using Swiss data from 1983 to 2008, this paper investigates whether growth rates of the different measures of the quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095154
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Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread : A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach
Beirne, John - 2013
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094544
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Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after All? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence
Feld, Lars P. - 2015
Has the “Swiss interest rate anomaly” persisted after the financial crisis? Regarding the hypothesis that the Swiss interest rate anomaly results from systemic risk anticipation, we discuss whether Switzerland remains an interest rate island in the wake of the financial crisis. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013009844
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Betting the House
Jorda, Oscar - 2015
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030308
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Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper uses long-range dependence techniques to analyse two important features of the US Federal Funds effective rate, namely its persistence and cyclical behaviour. It examines annual, monthly, bi-weekly and weekly data, from 1954 until 2010. Two models are considered. One is based on an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089178
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Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper analyses two well-known features of interest rates, namely their time dependence and their cyclical structure. Specifically, it focuses on the monthly Euribor rate, using monthly data from January 1994 to May 2011. Models based on fractional integration at the long run or zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092074
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Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure
Blouin, Jennifer - 2014
This paper examines the impact of thin capitalization rules that limit the tax deductibility of interest on the capital structure of the foreign affiliates of US multinationals. We construct a new data set on thin capitalization rules in 54 countries for the period 1982-2004. Using confidential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055986
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Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 2013
One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753957
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically
Freyberger, Joachim - 2018
We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910613