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structure can help predict interest rates and excess bond returns. We demonstrate that the statistical tests that have been used … slope of the yield curve are robust predictors of excess bond returns, and there is no robust and convincing evidence for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012562
consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019404
The term structure of equity returns is downward-sloping: stocks with high cash flow duration earn 1.10% per month lower returns than short-duration stocks in the cross section. I create a measure of cash flow duration at the firm level using balance sheet data to show this novel fact. Factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981605
De Paoli, Scott, and Weeken (2010, Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 2056-73) study equity and bonds prices in a New Keynesian model with sticky nominal prices. This note argues that their model generates a behavior of the labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089158
implemented and the resulting inflation turns out to be higher. Finally, we provide econometric evidence on the link between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089685
Macro-finance theory implies that trend ination and the equilibrium real interest rate are fundamental determinants of … understanding the dynamics of Treasury yields and predicting excess bond returns. We introduce a new arbitrage-free model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853894
.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with … regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is unspanned and that the unspanned variation helps forecast excess bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028787
How should one evaluate investment projects whose CCAPM betas are uncertain? This question is particularly crucial for projects yielding long-lasting impacts on the economy, as is the case for example for many green investments. We define the notion of a certainty equivalent beta. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087728
expectations component, consistent with survey evidence on expectations of future interest rates and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025968
Because of the uncertainty about how to model the growth process of our economy, there is still much confusion about which discount rates should be used to evaluate actions having long-lasting impacts, as in the contexts of climate change, social security reforms or large public infrastructures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315817