estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different …

rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …

bias is persistent and robust to several model extensions. Implications for the optimal design of intellectual property …

to a fiscal deficit bias at the early stages of financial liberalization. When countries differ in terms of capital …. Consistent with theory, I find that stronger tax competition increases deficits in a sample of OECD countries, controlling for …