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Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area : A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2014
. Positive (negative) news have significant positive (negative) effects on stock returns in all cases. Their volatility has a … significant impact on both stock returns and volatility; specifically, an increase in news volatility is always associated with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048822
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Asymmetric Connectedness on the U.S. Stock Market : Bad and Good Volatility Spillovers
Baruník, Jozef - 2015
This paper suggests how to quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers that emerge due to bad and good volatility … stocks at the disaggregate level. Moreover, the spillovers of bad and good volatility are transmitted at different magnitudes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023200
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Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2012
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112600
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area
Altavilla, Carlo - 2013
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753184
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Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets
Bubak, Vit - 2013
This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign … exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet … parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094673
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Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread : A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach
Beirne, John - 2013
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094544
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Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP : Optimal Pooling of Information
Hülsewig, Oliver - 2013
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses areawide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753479
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Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2014
reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045338
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‘Whatever It Takes’ to Resolve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis? Bond Pricing Regime Switches and Monetary Policy Effects
Afonso, António - 2017
This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943161