Showing 1 - 10 of 281
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144208
financial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947523
We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947624
. Positive (negative) news have significant positive (negative) effects on stock returns in all cases. Their volatility has a … significant impact on both stock returns and volatility; specifically, an increase in news volatility is always associated with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048822
suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns positively during periods characterised by demand-side shocks in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050468
volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927574
data properties. In particular, it is shown that changes in the volatility of the shocks can be used for identification …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754187
In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094544
Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse interdependence by estimating volatility spillovers, and also contagion by … testing for possible shifts in the transmission of volatility following the introduction of the euro and EU accession. Further …. Furthermore, whilst the introduction of the euro has had mixed effects, EU accession has resulted in an increase in volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095004
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the … management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571