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An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the 'Dutch disease' and the 'resource curse', which primarily focuses on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315924

Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany

Buchen, Teresa - 2013

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278

The Yield Spread Puzzle and the Information Content of SPF Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal - 2013

While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090002

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

Carstensen, Kai - 2017

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996209

Inside the Crystal Ball : New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Baumeister, Christiane - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996647

Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi - 2009

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154686

Forecastability and Statistical Characteristics of Aggregate Oil and Gas Investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Lorentzen, Sindre - 2016

We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). A unique and detailed dataset containing data from 109 different fields on the NCS between 1970 and 2015 was employed. A set of 1080 autoregressive distributed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979540

Vertical Integration and Valuation of International Oil Companies

Misund, Bard - 2014

This paper studies financial statement information from the 50 largest international oil and gas companies during 1992 to 2011 and evaluates their relation to market values. In particular, we examine how this relationship is affected by accounting method choice (successful efforts versus full...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043599

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