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Forecasting Tail Risks
De Nicolo, Gianni - 2015
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schleicher, Christoph; Zaffaroni, Paolo - 2021
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571
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Giving in the Face of Risk
Cettolin, Elena - 2017
The decision how to share resources with others often needs to be taken under uncertainty on its allocational consequences. Although risk preferences are likely important, existing research is silent about how social and risk preferences interact in such situations. In this paper we provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966905
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Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization : Actual Portfolio Approach
Rankovic, Vladimir - 2016
In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank's actual portfolio, i.e. the portfolio represented by its current holdings. To tackle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997323
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Risk Sharing in Defined-Contribution Funded Pension Systems
Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. - 2011
This paper explores the introduction of collective risk-sharing elements in defined contribution pension contracts. We consider status-contingent, age-contingent and asset contingent risk-sharing arrangements. All arrangements raise aggregate welfare, as measured by equivalent variations. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118167
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Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk : A Review
Bougheas, Spiros - 2014
In this paper we review recent advances in financial economics in relation to the measurement of systemic risk. We start by reviewing studies that apply traditional measures of risk to financial institutions. However, the main focus of the review is on studies that use network analysis paying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054029
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Risk-Sharing and Contagion in Networks
Cabrales, Antonio - 2014
We investigate the trade-off between the risk-sharing gains enjoyed by more interconnected firms and the costs resulting from an increased risk exposure. We find that when the shock distribution displays “fat” tails, extreme segmentation into small components is optimal, while minimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055377
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Student Loans : When is Risk Sharing Desirable?
Eckwert, Bernhard - 2016
In higher education, pure credit market funding leads to underinvestment due to insufficient risk pooling, while pure income-contingent loan funding leads to overinvestment. We analyze whether funding diversity – a market structure in which credit markets coexist alongside income-contingent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997605
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Rank Dependent Utility, Tax Evasion and Labor Supply
Eide, Erling - 2010
payers act according to some non-expected utility theory, and (2) Individual ethical norms and social stigma induce people … subjective probabilities of being penalised according to the rank dependent utility theory, and (2) Tax payers' beliefs about … utility theory. The model explains data 53% better than pure random choices and predicts hours worked in the regular economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136684
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Capacity Investment Under Demand Uncertainty - An Empirical Study of the US Cement Industry, 1994-2006
Ponssard, Jean-Pierre - 2010
implications of the theory literature on this topic in an empirical study of the US cement industry between 1994 and 2006. Firms in … these markets via both domestic production and imports. Consistent with the theory, we find a negative relationship between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138028