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found to help rationalizing the hump-shaped response of inflation, without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094533
and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182
different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (1) the optimal steady …-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (2) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by … estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the U.S. economy. In the year 1977, the optimal inflation rate stood at 1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916153
inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange … across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We … preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958731
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary … policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada …'s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. The data are aggregated to construct an inflation expectations index …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979664
We examine “Forward Guidance Contracts”, which make central bankers' utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a flexible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021419
We document a large return drift around monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee. Stock returns start drifting up 25 days before expansionary monetary policy surprises, whereas they decrease before contractionary surprises. The cumulative return difference across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946927
model of inflation dynamics to evaluate monetary policies that rely on going long. It concludes that these policies for the … most part fail to keep inflation under control. A complementary methodological contribution is to re-state the classic … integrate the endogenous determination of inflation and the term structure of interest rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916568
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965931
inflation targeter early in this period but began to pay less attention to inflation after 2009. Loss of the strong nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011437