This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...

We examine how regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements for the U.S., Germany and the euro area affect the German stock market, using high–frequency, minute–by–minute DAX data. Our study extends the literature on high–frequency announcement effects in several ways. First, we...

We examine how regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements for the U.S., Germany and the euro area affect the German stock market, using high–frequency, minute–by–minute DAX data. Our study extends the literature on high–frequency announcement effects in several ways. First, we...

This paper proposes a new measure for the evaluation of financial market efficiency, the so-called intermittency coefficient. This is a multifractality measure that can quantify the deviation from a random walk within the framework of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001b)....

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...

The stock market influences some of the most fundamental economic decisions of investors, such as consumption, saving, and labor supply, through the financial wealth channel. This pa-per provides evidence that daily fluctuations in the stock market have important - and hitherto neglected -...

The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during 2006–2014, we describe and model volatility spillovers during global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several...

We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...