-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results … indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies …

How does risk affect saving? Empirical work typically examines the effects of detectible differences in risk within the … data. How these differences affect saving in theoretical models depends on the metric one uses for risk. For labor …-income risk, second-degree increases in risk require prudence to induce increased saving demand. However, prudence is not …

The paper reexamines the welfare economics of intergenerational risk. Risk and its resolution over time are modeled as … preferences to (i) disentangle aversion to intergenerational inequality from aversion to risk, (ii) exhibit a preference for early … resolution of risk, (iii) show different discounting formulas depending on the magnitude of risk and on the timing of its …

assumption of (intertemporal) risk neutrality reduces the growth effect in social discounting and significantly amplifies the … importance of risk and correlation. Second, debate and models largely overlook the difference in attitude with respect to risk … and with respect to non-risk uncertainty. The paper derives the resulting changes of the risk-free and the stochastic …

the magnitude of the optimal paygo program and the nature of the underlying risk sharing effects are very sensitive to the … chosen combination of risk concepts and stochastic specification of long run aggregate wage income growth. In an additive way … we distinguish between the pooling of wage and capital risks within periods and two different intertemporal risk sharing …

Under conditions of risk it makes a difference whether the discount rate is determined as an expected present or as an …

the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …