has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the … the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem is that there are as many measures of the market … expectation as there are estimates of the risk premium. We propose a general solution to this problem that allows us to select the …

making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … return correlations using weekly returns on futures markets and investigate the extent to which multivariate volatility … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how …

ten sectoral indices over the period January 1997-Febraury 2014. The estimation of a bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean model … suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns positively during periods characterised by demand-side shocks in all …

evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns … describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical …

estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …