Showing 1 - 10 of 17
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963589
Starting in late 2008, the U.S. production of tight oil surged, causing a renaissance in the U.S. oil sector that few industry analysts had anticipated. This tight oil boom reduced the dependence of the United States on petroleum imports and allowed it to become a major exporter of gasoline and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960095
The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014-16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960111
We explore the effect on U.S. real GDP growth of the sharp and sustained decline in the global price of crude oil and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline after June 2014. Our analysis suggests that this decline produced a cumulative stimulus of about 0.9 percentage points of real GDP growth by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962117
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930077
Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315410
This article examines how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices. It puts the evolution of shale oil production into historical perspective, highlights uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315512
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996209
Least-squares estimates of the response of gasoline consumption to a change in the gasoline price are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996430
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996647