Showing 1 - 10 of 2,082
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024363
In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank's actual portfolio, i.e. the portfolio represented by its current holdings. To tackle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997323
new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary dimensions and can deal with parameter estimation uncertainty and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916359
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317169
This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051612
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996209
has considerable forecasting power for U.S. stock returns. In line with the theoretical mechanism, the correlation between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317587
maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the model, we use an expectation maximization algorithm based on the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317180