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Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash
Pesaran, Bahram - 2013
making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817
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Hybrid Historical Simulation VaR and ES : Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets
Zikovic, Sasa - 2009
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155427
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383
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Robust Growth Determinants
Doppelhofer, Gernot - 2011
This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsimonious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129859
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Jointness of Growth Determinants
Doppelhofer, Gernot; Weeks, Melvyn - 2021
This paper introduces a new measure of dependence or jointness among explanatory variables. Jointness is based on the joint posterior distribution of variables over the model space, thereby taking model uncertainty into account. By looking beyond marginal measures of variable importance,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317072
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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schleicher, Christoph; Zaffaroni, Paolo - 2021
use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio … management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571
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The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables
Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2009
For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764276
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Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model
Malley, Jim - 2009
This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model's posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160381
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Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Cycles in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model
Malley, Jim; Woitek, Ulrich - 2021
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316363
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - CESifo - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728