the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …

new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary dimensions and can deal with parameter estimation uncertainty and …

access to financial markets quite quickly result in increasing market participation. However, the degree and sort of risk …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the … the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem is that there are as many measures of the market … expectation as there are estimates of the risk premium. We propose a general solution to this problem that allows us to select the …

.S. stock market wealth. Fluctuations in entrepreneurs' hunger for risk could therefore help explain time variation in the … fluctuations in proprietary income, is highly correlated with cross-sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk and … as entrepreneurial risk has become more easily diversifiable in the wake of U.S. state-level bank deregulation …

maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the model, we use an expectation maximization algorithm based on the state …

use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio … management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …