Showing 1 - 10 of 1,997
rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081705
This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964616
Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030310
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and … policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available … information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996647
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017623
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659187
quite rapidly with the forecast horizon, and (b) AugGVAR forecasts do as well as other data-rich forecasting techniques for … short horizons, and tend to do better for longer forecast horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040008
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315480