increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to … confirms that the contribution of EPU shocks to the volatility of unemployment at business cycle frequencies is markedly larger …

We reassess the quot;scarringquot; hypothesis by Clark et al. (2001), which states that unemployment experienced in the … scar from past unemployment operates via worsened expectations of becoming unemployed in the future, and that it is future … insecurity that makes people unhappy. Hence, the terminology should be altered by one letter: past unemployment quot …

lack of compensating differentials for unemployment risk can arise in equilibrium when all workers are identical and firms … risky tail of the distribution of firm-level unemployment risk. Meanwhile, unemployment becomes persistent for low-wage and … differ only in job security (i.e. the probability that the worker is not sent into unemployment). In a setting where workers …

on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 …

Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment … of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic … of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects …

Up to now there was a general conviction that increasing unemployment and inflation have a negative impact on the … the Schröder government. While the results for the former show the known pattern, neither unemployment nor inflation is … significant in the equations of the Schröder government, the latter has even the wrong sign. The missing impact of unemployment …

We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two … international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on … choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment, inflation and the …