nothing if it loses. We study a model of war with such an asymmetric payoff structure, and private information about military … win the war unless its expected military technology is considerably worse. Our model may thus explain why defending …

Although the relationship between natural resources and civil war has received much attention, little is known about …

This paper proposes a simple framework to better understand an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and … open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …

), terrorism, and external conflicts, including military spending. There are a number of key theoretical concerns on what counts as …

systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly … polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries … educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war …

of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil … beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions … commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak …

Civil war is often caused by poverty, and further demolishes existing capital. Such a vicious circle is detrimental for … economic development of countries experiencing civil war. Civil war may also contribute to creative destructions of traditional … economic, social and political system, leading to a more rapid post-war growth. Until now little research exists tackling …