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Gotcha! A Profile of Smuggling in International Trade
Berger, Helge; Nitsch, Volker - 2021
the world's five largest importers for the period from 2002-2006, we find that the reporting gaps are highly correlated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316439
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Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014
Baumeister, Christiane - 2016
Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996804
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Cooperation on Climate-Change Mitigation
Mason, Charles F. - 2016
We model countries' choice of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a dynamic game. Emissions generate immediate benefits to the emitting country but also increase atmospheric GHG concentrations that negatively affect present and future welfare of all countries. Because there are no international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998790
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External Influence as an Indicator of Scholarly Importance
Chan, Ho Fai - 2013
world are far more extensive and recently developed technologies allow broader and more accurate measurement of their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075968
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The Information Content of KOF Indicators on Swiss Current Account Data Revisions
Jacobs, Jan P. A. M. - 2008
This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770525
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Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance : Evidence of Skill?
MacDonald, Ronald - 2013
This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095998
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Forecasting Exchange Rates : An Investor Perspective
Melvin, Michael - 2013
rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081705
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Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon : The French Case
Bec, Frederique - 2009
This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160520
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Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts : Evidence from the German States
Kauder, Bjoern - 2017
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962666
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Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Berg, Tim Oliver - 2014
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055383