Different studies provide surprisingly a large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions...

The Ifo Institute for Economic Research has been conducting regular business surveys since its foundation in 1949. The most well-known of Ifo's surveys is the Ifo Business Survey (ifo Konjunkturtest). The micro data of the Ifo Business Survey are accessible to external researchers on-site at Ifo...

This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm in which banks decide on their loan supply in the light of expectations about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a VAR model, we estimate the response of bank...

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act constitutes the largest change to the US tax system since the 1980s and thoroughly alters the way in which multinational companies are taxed. Current assessments on the reform's international impact vary widely. This article sheds light on the tax reform's expected...