This paper examines financial spillovers between the four largest equity markets (by market capitalization) in the GCC region using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) framework that sheds light on interdependence as well as the effects of the 2014 oil crisis. Since the UAE is a federation including two stock...

Realized covariance models specify the conditional expectation of a realized covariance matrix as a function of past realized covariance matrices through a GARCH-type structure. We compare the forecasting performance of several such models in terms of economic value, measured through economic...

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...

Measures of economic uncertainty are countercyclical, but economic theory does not provide definite guidance on the direction of causation between uncertainty and the business cycle. This paper proposes a new multi-country approach to the analysis of the interaction between uncertainty and...

This paper examines mean and volatility spillovers between four green municipal bonds issued by the US states of California, Colorado, Columbia and Ohio, and the role played by the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the COP policy announcements respectively. Specifically, four-variate VAR-GARCH-BEKK...

We investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock markets of selected oil importers and oil exporters at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide evidence in favour of energy contagion, in term of significantly higher correlations between oil and stock markets returns during...

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during 2006-2014, we describe and model volatility spillovers during global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several...

This paper estimates a tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model to examine linkages between the stock markets of three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), specifically the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, and both the UK and Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse...

This paper examines the effects of newspaper headlines on the exchange rates visa-a-vis both the US dollar and the euro for the currencies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The data are daily and cover the period 03/1/2000-12/5/2013. The estimated VAR-GARCH(1,1) model...

This paper adopts a VAR-GARCH approach to model the dynamic linkages between both the mean and the variance of macro news and commodity returns (Gold, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Aluminium and Crude Oil) over the period 01/01/2001-26/09/2014. The chosen...