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Trust in government and fiscal adjustments
Bursian, Dirk; Weichenrieder, Alfons J.; Zimmer, Jochen - 2013
The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764994
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Euro membership and fiscal reaction functions
Weichenrieder, Alfons J.; Zimmer, Jochen - 2013
The paper uses fiscal reaction functions for a panel of euro-area countries to investigate whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to shocks in the level of inherited debt compared to the period prior to succession to the euro. While we find some evidence for such a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748386
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Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022
We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162289
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To consolidate or not to consolidate? : a multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar - 2022
We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938962
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Fiscal sustainability in the EU after the global crisis : is there any progress?
Wysocki, Maciej; Wójcik, Cezary - 2018
interesting case of a member state that without significant market pressure (the only EU country without recession during the … crisis) actively promoted several changes in the EU fiscal framework (e.g. 6-pack) and effectively internalized some of these … 2014 Q1. The case of Poland seems to suggest that the post-crisis EU fiscal measures can be effectively used to increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900847
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Budgetary constrained governments : drivers of time varying fiscal sustainability in OECD countries
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2024
We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543858
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Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU : the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024
Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486806
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Fiscal sustainability and the role of inflation
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Matvejevs, Oļegs; … - 2023
We examine the relationship between inflation and fiscal sustainability with a two-step approach. In the first step, we estimate to estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability using the fiscal reaction function. This function captures the response of the primary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444867
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Does monetary policy influence Euro area fiscal sustainability?
Afonso, António; Pereira, Francisco Gomes - 2024
This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. Our sample includes 12 euro area countries and covers the period from 2003:Q1 to 2022:Q4. We extend a fiscal reaction function (Bohn’s rule) by including the monetary policy stance as an interaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015046233
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Spend-and-tax adjustments and the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint
Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2010
We apply non-linear error-correction models to the empirical testing of the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. Our empirical analysis, based on Italy, shows that the Italian government is meeting its intertemporal budget constraint, in spite of the high levels of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003936661