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Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy

Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2016

Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661

Would households understand average inflation targeting?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Pavlova, Lora; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2022

Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205445

Rebalancing the euro area : is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Kliem, Martin; Krause, Michael; … - 2020

We assess to what extent wage inflation policies in Germany could contribute to an economic rebalancing in the euro area and the rest of the world. We find that a rise in nominal wage inflation has positive short-run effects on inflation and output in Germany and the rest of the euro area. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012184056

Disagreement and monetary policy

Falck, Elisabeth; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2017

Time-variation in disagreement about inflation expectations is a stylized fact in surveys, but little is known on how disagreement interacts with the efficacy of monetary policy. This paper fills this gap in providing theoretical predictions of monetary policy shocks for different levels of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011740252

On the empirical relevance of the exchange rate as a shock absorber at the zero lower bound

Finck, David; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2023 - February 3, 2023

United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320485

Forceful or persistent : wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations

Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; … - 2023

We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB strategy. We find that survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new strategy with a symmetric 2% target. Yet,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391441

Do exchange rates absorb demand shocks at the ZLB?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2021

According to the two-country full information New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates, the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510174

'By a silken thread' : regional banking integration and pathways to financial development in Japan's Great Recession

Hoffmann, Mathias; Okubo, Toshihiro - 2013

How do financial development and financial integration interact? We focus on Japan's Great Recession after 1990 to … reference to prefectures' different historical pathways to financial development. After Japan's opening to trade in the 19th …, the main export hub for silk, provided silk reelers with trade loans. Many regional banks in Japan were founded as local …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009691621

A re-examination of the link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials

Hoffmann, Mathias; MacDonald, Ronald - 2003

The real exchange rate - real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506475