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Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics : an empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2012

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571104

Tests of policy ineffectiveness in macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2014

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375404

Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe

Leith, Campbell B.; Malley, James R. - 2002

A persistent criticism of general equilibrium models of monetary policy which incorporate nominal inertia in the form of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is that they fail to capture the extent of inflation inertia in the data. In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409738

The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty : evidence from the US and the Euro area

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2009

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003813633

Theory and practice of GVAR modeling

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354717

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960 - 1994

Franz, Wolfgang (contributor) - 1998

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000654506

Are fiscal VAR's non-fundamentalness easily reversible through the addition of informative variables?

Vonbun, Christian; Lima, Elcyon Caiado Rocha - 2021

The VAR/SVAR (Vector Autoregressive and Structural Vector Autoregressive) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for being able to measure the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486165

National economic impacts of an EU environmental policy : an applied general equilibrium analysis

Conrad, Klaus; Schmidt, Tobias F. N. - 1995

The objective of this paper is to quantify the economic effects of the introduction of a system of tradable permits in the European Union (EU). For this purpose we use linked applied general equilibrium models (AGE) for eleven EU member countries. This method enables us to measure the change in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011620808

Understanding the Australian economy : a computable general equilibrium model with updated data and parameters

Verikios, George; Hanslow, Kevin; Mariano, Marc Jim; … - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604438

Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions

Buscher, Herbert S. (contributor) - 1998

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428178

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